Wang Lijun Could Change China's Power Transition

Wang Lijun is the former police chief of Chongqing who fled to the US Consulate and asked for asylum two weeks ago. He has now disappeared into the Chinese Communist Party's internal security apparatus.

But his case is still shaking up the Party's sensitive, once-in-a-decade power transition that will happen this fall. And it could even bring about the biggest political change within the Chinese Communist Party—the CCP—in more than 20 years.

[Chen Zhifei, NTD Senior Analyst]:
"It has great implications for the Party Congress, how it will be played out later this year."

At the heart of the issue is a power struggle between two competing factions in the Party. One faction is led by the current head of the CCP, Hu Jintao. The other, more hard line faction is led by former CCP leader Jiang Zemin.

Wang and his boss, Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai, belong to Jiang's faction. Wang's scandal is widely believed to have ended Bo's ambitious political career. And it may now involve another member of Jiang's faction, Zhou Yongkang.

Overseas Chinese news website Boxun.com has reported that during his stay at the US Consulate, Wang told US officials about a possible coup attempt spearheaded by Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang.

According to Boxun, the attempt to seize power would mean getting Bo Xilai to take Zhou's position when he retires later this year. Bo would then be in a position to demand power from the next leader of the CCP, Xi Jinping.

Zhou Yongkang is a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, the nine-member group that controls the Chinese Communist Party. He's in charge of the Political and Legislative Affairs Committee, a powerful post.

[Chen Zhifei, NTD Senior Analyst]:
"Imagine you have one Cabinet member in the current US administration who would watch over the Supreme Court, who would watch over the CIA, the FBI. It's really a position that gives you some kind of unlimited power. That would allow you to do anything."

Bo was already considered a favorite for Zhou's post before the Wang Lijun scandal broke. But now, most China watchers say he has no way to join the Standing Committee anymore.

[Chen Zhifei, NTD Senior Analyst]:
"Nobody within the current leadership, excluding the Jiang faction, would have an interest in saving him."

Now Bo's fall from power has left a void in the potential succession of the CCP. Chen says that may leave a chance for Hu Jintao's group to dominate the next leadership transition by controlling who is in charge of Political and Legislative Affairs.

And that would be a significant change. Members of Jiang's group have held that post for almost 15 years. They've used it to push Jiang's campaigns, like the persecution of the Falun Gong spiritual movement.

If Hu's Youth League faction is able to take that position, it may lead to bigger changes.

[Chen Zhifei, NTD Senior Analyst]:
"A lot of people's attention will be on how the transition will be done. Will the Jiang faction be totally consigned out of the political stage? Will the Youth League faction take over the whole stage, win the whole deck? Those are big question marks."