Analyst: Harper's Meeting with Bo Xilai Doesn't Mean Bo's Problems Are Over

There's growing speculation over Chongqing's deputy mayor and former police chief Wang Lijun, his visit to the US Consulate in Chengdu last Monday, and what he's been doing since. The latest reports indicate that Wang is most likely in Beijing and in the custody of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), a secretive organization in charge of investigating and punishing Party officials suspected of corruption.

Wang's boss, Bo Xilai, is the Communist Party Secretary of Chongqing, the highest-ranking position in that city. As Wang's scandal broke, Bo was in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, making an inspection tour. Although Yunnan's state-run media reported on Bo's trip, the papers in Chongqing were curiously silent.

Over the weekend, Bo appeared publically in Chongqing for the first time since Wang's scandal broke, as he met briefly with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper during the final leg of Harper's trip to China.

Some are saying the fact that Bo came out to meet Harper is a sign indicating that Bo Xilai is weathering this particular political storm that was started by Wang's actions.


From the South China Morning Post:

The meeting between Harper and Bo lasted for about an hour. Bo reportedly appeared relaxed and nodded when Harper thanked Chongqing for its 10-year loan of two giant pandas to Canada.

The Canadian Press yesterday reported that both sides sat across a large conference table, "with Bo showing no sign of the political controversy swirling around him and Harper not acknowledging it either".

"More people in Canada will notice the pandas than anything else," Harper joked with Bo.

Analysts say there was no sign Bo had been affected by the drama surrounding his former top aide.

"The meeting sent a message to the outside world that Bo is still talking with Beijing's top leaders about how to settle Wang's case and what his own fate will be after it is resolved," said Hong Kong-based political commentator Johnny Lau Yui-siu, referring to negotiations between Bo and the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's top echelon.

But according to NTD's Senior China Analyst Zhang Tianliang, Bo's appearance with Harper doesn't mean that he's now safe from a possible political purge.

We spoke with Professor Zhang on Saturday.


Q: Stephen Harper met with Bo Xilai. Is there some kind of message that sends about Bo's future?

Zhang Tianliang:
I don't think so, because right now, it's a really sensitive moment. Xi Jinping is going to visit the US. I believe that first of all, the Communist Party needs some time to interrogate Wang Lijun and do some investigation. And before they draw a conclusion, they will still allow Bo Xilai to meet with foreign leaders. And secondly, Xi Jinping is coming to visit the US. I believe the communist regime doesn't want any scandal or accident to embarrass him. So, if something big happened, he would probably be asked, probably by even Obama or Biden. It's a kind of embarrassment. So I believed that Bo Xilai would be meeting Stephen Harper. I wrote an article yesterday that predicted that. But it doesn't mean anything. It doesn't mean that Bo Xilai is safe.


Q: Do you think Stephen Harper knew what he was getting into?

Zhang Tianliang:

I think this news is everywhere, but they may still think this is only about Wang Lijun. They may not know that Bo Xilai is the final target of this whole story.


Q: What do you think it means that the Chongqing papers didn't report on Bo Xilai's visit in Kunming?

Zhang Tianliang:
This is very weird. Because whatever Bo Xilai did—Chongqing newspapers are under his control. If his activity is not reported, it means that he has already lost control of that paper. It was very weird that on the second day [of the scandal], they had a report on his calligraphy to a very small company. We don't know what that company was about, but it's very trivial. And then if you click it, you can find that the date of his calligraphy was a month ago. So it's very weird that you have the topline news of his calligraphy that was [from] a month ago; it doesn't make any sense. A lot of things are too strange to observers.


Q: So what do you think is Bo Xilai's future?

Zhang Tianliang:
His situation is very unstable. How do you say, he's on the brink of collapse. Basically, I believe that Bo Xilai is in big trouble. Usually, when this type of thing would happen in Chongqing, Bo Xilai should go back to Chongqing to handle this immediately. But he stayed in Yunnan for two days. I believe the communist regime doesn't allow him to go back to eliminate any evidence or destroy any evidence. I think yesterday there was the news that the mayor of Chongqing, basically an assistant to Bo Xilai, was in Beijing. Someone saw him at the airport. So probably the mayor, Huang Qifan, also went to Beijing to report something. So I think definitely  Bo Xilai is in trouble. The worse case for him is he may go to prison. The best case for him is that he cannot go to the Standing Committee of the Politburo.

Q: So you think it's already over. There's no way he's going to make it to the standing committee now.

Zhang Tianliang:
No, I don't see any chance.